9/12: UNITED: Day 1

by Gene Kim on

#UNITEDsummit

Chip Heath

  • Heath: Half of all retirees have less than $25K as their total savings
  • @MetricsHulk: #UNITEDSummit First up: Keynote – Being Decisive ; Dan Heath, author of 'Switch'
  • Heath: "50% of all employees leave within first year" (@hrbrmstr)
  • Heath: "40% of doctors wouldn't go into med school" (@hrbrmstr)
  • Daniel Ariely, Thinking Fast and Slow
  • Instead of thinking about cognitive disadvantage, how do we mitigate them?
  • Books: "Made to Stick," "Switch," and now "Decisive"
  • Daniel Kahneman: "A remarkable aspect of your mental life is that you are rarely stumped"
  • Four part process (as oppose to steps) to make better decisions
    • Goal is to move the spotlight into the strategic and hidden places
    • 1. Widen options: Narrow framing: "Fire Clive?": lots of options: mentors, interview colleagues
    • 2. Reality test: Stuff that supports us vs. stuff that doesn't support us: confirmation basis
    • 3. Attain distance before making decisions vs. now
    • 4. Prepare to be wrong: a range of worst vs. best, not right vs. wrong
    • WRAP is the mnemonic tool
  • Carnegie Mellon studied teenager "decision" making process: not selecting an option, instead "should I do XXX or not?"
  • Teens are blind to their choices: blind to options
  • Paul Nutt from OSU:
  • Heath: "One of worst acquisitions was 1984 Quaker $1B acquisition of Gatorade: in 1994, evaluated Snapple: looked similar, tasted similar: bought for $1.8B"
    • problem deteriorated: supply chain and distribution totally different; Snapple had unique quirky brand
    • 3 years later: Quaker sells snapple for $300M; Lost $57K an hour
  • Heath: "One of worst acquisitions was 1984 Quaker $1B acquisition of Gatorade:
    in 1994, evaluated Snapple: looked similar, tasted similar: bought for $1.8B"

    • "There was so much energy; we should have had more people look at the downsides"
    • @MetricsHulk: #UNITEDSummit Talking about Gatorade->Snapple debacle. Bought Snapple for 1.8b; sold it for 300m in 3 yrs. lost $57K/hr
  • RT @MetricsHulk: Heath: #UNITEDSummit Worst acq ever: Quaker bought Snapple for $1.8b; sold it for $300m 3 yrs later. That's $57K/hr!!

Widen frame:

  • 1. Opportunity cost: "What's the next best thing we could do with the same resources: what could we do for $1.8 billion"
  • 2. Fall in love twice: "When shopping for house, keep shopping until you see two?"
  • 3. Vanishing Options test: force yourself to shift spotlight; go roving for different options
    • @unitedsummit: Dan Heath: Try the vanishing options test - assume that you wake up one morning and all viable options have disappeared.

Reality test:

  • "Smoking does or does not lead to lung cancer": which is more fun to read?
    • Binder: data that or does not support me
    • confirmation bias: deeply ingrained tendency to seek out things that support our POV
    • Dr. Dan Lovallo: "Confirmation bias is the biggest problem in business, but in reality, they're just cooking the books"
    • 80% of reviews for the Polynesian are negative: "dog kennel is cleaner than my room"
  • Outside view vs. inside view
    • inside view: can we glean truth of that hotel?
    • outside view: how does the Polynesian hotel fare against all the options or evaluated?
    • Outside view: TripAdvisor, Amazon, Yelp: these are instinctive uses of outside view
    • We default to the inside view: like finding a new job (did you sample 5 people who have comparable job, people who have had that job?"
    • When assessing threats, is it possible? "fixing APTs vs. bigger problems like malware, driveby, etc..."
    • Heath: "wisdom: (to beat confirmation bias): trust experience of others, as opposed to our own intuition" (Josh clapped me on back)

Attain distance

  • Heath: "To attain distance: life doesn't have an undo button, it's often wise to 'sleep on it' for big decisions"
  • "There can be a diff between knowing what's best and doing what's best: like diets"
  • Haha. Heath: "On our tombstone, do we really want "responded to email promptly?"
  • Heath: "Imagine if researchers saw every email
  • @MetricsHulk: Heath: "If forensic team was given access to all your calendarr/browser/tweets for past 6 months, what would they think your values were?"
  • USS Benfold: interviewed all 330 crews, asked about their experience on the ship; what are the most important aspect of your job, what is nuisance
  • Output: List A (most important tasks) and List B (total drudgery: like painting the ship), then systematically eradicated List B
    • 5 Why: we need to paint because rusty bolts stain the ship. Navy supply yards don't sell stainless steel bolts, having them to buy them at Home Depot
    • Could then cross out "paint ship" off of list B
    • Reduced painting cycle to once per year vs. multiple times per year
    • "Sand down metal corrosion:" bake metal and flame baking the metal; nothing had scale to do whole ship; but local contractor could do it for $25K
  • Eradicated portion of time for List A vs. B: "readiness indicators across the ship"
  • Crew of USS Benfold: passed final exam in first week of trying
  • "What can you STOP doing to carve out time for your core priorities"
    • WIP kills
    • impedence removal
  • Lesson: "overcome short-term emotions, and go for the prize and long-term goals"

Prepare to be wrong

  • Villian: overconfidence
  • Heath: Use Gary Klein's "pre-mortem" technique: get team together: ask "1 yr from now, this project in a fiasco; why?"
    • Heath: Another tool to overcome overconfidence: Military FMEA:
    • Rate from 1-10: Likelihood, Severity, Chance of evading detection: multiply them together
  • "Tripwire." Hahaha... That is funny... @joshcorman and I are cracking back here.
  • Haha. @joshcorman/me cracking up back here... @MetricsHulk: #UNITEDSummit Dan now shilling for Tripwire (not really)
  • Up and until you hit the tripwire, keep considering...
  • Tripwire:
    • sets clearheaded conditions for reconsideration
    • quiets your mind in the meantime
  • Biggest tripwire expert: David Lee Roth with Van Halen: created hit after hit: Jump, Hot for Teacher: very sophisticated touring operation, touring productino
  • @MetricsHulk: #UNITEDSummit Under what circumstances shld we snap awake and reconsider our choice?
  • @J4vv4D: RT @jadedsecurity: @J4vv4D we need those 50 to support us #ISC2Congress http://t.co/UWA994EW #CISSP and #Unitedsummit
  • @rhm2k: RT @MetricsHulk: #UNITEDSummit We tend to treat decisions as permanent when they are almost always contingent.
  • @MetricsHulk: #UNITEDSummit Suggests we use decision tripwires as a means to help us snap awake to reconsider the path we're on.
  • @hrbrmstr: I've been saving @MetricsHulk's #UNITEDSummit tweets and will put them up on the blog this week.
  • @czmilosz: Tripwire endorsement by Dan Heath at #UNITEDSummit ? Wrong sponsor!
  • "There will be 15 amp voltage sockets at 20 foot spaces, etc.."
  • The rider was written like that was to prevent mistakes
  • Van Halen
  • @hrbrmstr: I've been saving @MetricsHulk's #UNITEDSummit tweets and will put them up on the blog this week.
  • @hrbrmstr: dude, just use @TweetScriber, so you can curate @metricshulk notes in real time!
  • Van Halen: required bowl of M&Ms: became story of diva-like behavior, but it's wrong: it wsa
  • Article 126: there will be no brown M&M's in the backstage are, upon pain of forfeiture show, with full compensation
  • Guarantee: entire line check of entire show: b/c it was the perfect tripwire
  • "Run a premortem, set a tripwire"

  • Biases are hard to uproot/vanquish

  • Heath: Biases are diff to vanquish: "Knowing your nearsighted doesn't help you become less nearsighted"

  • Wow. @MetricsHulk: #UNITEDSummit McKinsey studied 1048 decisions over 5 years; Procss mattered more than analysis by a factor of SIX.

  • Heath: McKinsey: "In >1000 decisions, found that process mattered more than analysis by a factor of 6x!"

  • RT @MetricsHulk:McKinsey studied 1048 decisions over 5 years; Procss mattered more than analysis by a factor of SIX.

This is a Duarte coached person

  • Heath: "Decisions are like driving cars: 95% of time is spent going straight; decisions are like the 5% in turns"
  • @MetricsHulk: #UNITEDSummit The right process can protect us from many traps. We will never be perfect. But we can be better.

  • FDR known for his mastery of information flows: famous for quantifying mails: mail brief: statistical summaries of views in letters

    • then sampled the letters to get the flavor: "to find garbage data"

Rick Holland, Forrester

Former intelligence analyst

  • attributes of effective intelligence
    • accurate, complete, precise, predictive, relevant (vs feed), reliable, tailred, usable
  • "prehab/rehab" like premortem